Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.521417 3.832152 4.190084 4.641777 5.210870 5.926711 6.938756
2025-02-02 3.216510 3.632466 4.155206 4.893519 5.979151 7.677621 11.085603
2025-02-09 2.962043 3.415292 4.014605 4.924153 6.419539 9.249707 18.063926
2025-02-16 2.790931 3.268225 3.924400 4.980337 6.899535 11.356620 43.882009
2025-02-23 2.594029 3.059211 3.710416 4.788507 6.852675 12.276140 223.571404
2025-03-02 2.486453 2.960144 3.639685 4.810113 7.230474 15.097797 NaN
2025-03-09 2.388185 2.863786 3.559156 4.795529 7.526676 18.624421 NaN
2025-03-16 2.281226 2.746146 3.432922 4.675683 7.528113 21.061863 NaN
2025-03-23 2.237429 2.716148 3.439414 4.801046 8.225358 35.125475 NaN
2025-03-30 2.140662 2.601632 3.300223 4.622669 7.993131 37.263340 NaN
2025-04-06 2.049190 2.490696 3.159961 4.427474 7.661541 35.997563 NaN
2025-04-13 1.980234 2.410350 3.064894 4.313280 7.554157 40.501144 NaN
2025-04-20 1.957771 2.400635 3.088273 4.449318 8.338676 546.314889 NaN
2025-04-27 1.951623 2.415167 3.153453 4.687769 9.734877 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.913202 2.377488 3.125628 4.716782 10.351347 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.880907 2.347512 3.108656 4.768164 11.168064 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.820073 2.269990 3.002451 4.592919 10.638315 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.789457 2.239064 2.977803 4.612694 11.272792 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.756569 2.203082 2.941675 4.599348 11.728660 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.713457 2.149229 2.870265 4.489523 11.470561 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.700922 2.143725 2.886537 4.604397 12.985705 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.655605 2.083843 2.799474 4.440858 12.163454 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.609806 2.022272 2.707713 4.261225 11.212087 NaN NaN